NHL Lightning vs. Kings odds, preview, prediction 3/23: Goalie edge to L.A.

Lightning vs. Kings Odds

Saturday, March 23, 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+

Odds via ESPN BET. Get up-to-the-minute NHL odds here.

Tampa Bay Lightning

The Lightning have won their last five games, but that's largely thanks to their offense.

Andrei Vasilevskiy did earn a 25-save shutout over the Flyers on March 9 and saved 21 of 22 shots against the lowly Sharks on Thursday, but he also surrendered three goals in each of Tampa Bay's other contests over that stretch. In other words, he's been good at times, but not without his blemishes, which has been the story of his season.

Vasilevskiy's 26-16-1 with a 2.91 GAA and an .899 save percentage, both of which would be career lows if the season ended today, through 43 contests. It's a stark change for the two-time Vezina Trophy winner, who had until this year been arguably the league's most reliable netminder.

It doesn't get much better if you look beneath the hood. Vasilevskiy's Goals Saved Above Expected is minus-1.4, which suggests that if you factor the defense in front of him, the 29-year-old's play hasn't been a disaster. But it has been slightly below average, which is a major problem when you come with a $9.5 million cap hit.

On most other teams, those shortcomings would be enough to sink the season, but the Lightning have managed to keep their heads above water through sheer offensive force. It starts with Nikita Kucherov, who has overtaken Colorado's Nathan MacKinnon in the scoring race with 122 points to MacKinnon's 119.

Kucherov has been incredibly reliable, being held off the scoresheet just 11 times this season (12 if you include the one game he missed), but he's found another level recently with three goals and 15 points across his past four contests.

He's easily the Lightning's biggest threat, but far from their only one. The squad also features Brayden Point (40 goals, 78 points), Steven Stamkos (27, 63), Brandon Hagel (23, 63) and defenseman Victor Hedman (12, 68) in prominent roles.

Tampa Bay's scoring depth isn't the best, but it did improve with the trade deadline acquisition of Anthony Duclair, who has four goals and seven points in five outings since being acquired from San Jose.

So while Vasilevskiy's decline has led to the Lightning no longer being a well-rounded squad, their offense might still make them tough to beat.

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Los Angeles Kings

The Kings will be able to counter the Lightning's attack with strong goaltending.

Cam Talbot has a 21-16-6 record, 2.42 GAA and .917 save percentage in 44 outings while David Rittich is 11-5-3 with a 2.17 GAA and .921 save percentage in 21 games. The duo is also hot with Rittich coming off a 31-save shutout against Minnesota and Talbot having stopped 50 of 52 shots (.962 save percentage) over his past two outings. So while it's not clear who will start for LA tonight, what we do know is the Kings will have a great netminder between the pipes.

Let's say Tampa Bay does compromise the Kings' goaltending, though. At that point, can LA keep pace in a high-scoring affair? The Kings lack a Kucherov or even a Point-level superstar, but LA features solid offensive depth. The squad boasts seven players who have surpassed the 40-point milestone, which is two more than Tampa Bay.

There's also an argument to be made that LA's offense is underrated. If you look purely at goals per game, Tampa Bay obviously has the edge with 3.49 to 3.10, but LA actually is slightly better in terms of xGF/60 with 3.30 to the Lightning's 3.20, so perhaps it would be wrong to say Tampa Bay has a clear edge in scoring and instead rate the difference as inconclusive.

That's especially true tonight because the game will be in Los Angeles. The Lightning have seen a noticeable offensive decline on the road at 3.11 goals per game compared to 3.88 at home.

Lightning vs. Kings

Betting Pick & Prediction

So the edge in goaltending seems to clearly go to LA while neither team has a decisive advantage in scoring.

For that reason, I would rather take the Kings tonight. This should still be a hard-fought battle, so I'd recommend against the puck line, where the spread is 1.5 goals in favor of Tampa Bay. But LA is still a solid choice on the moneyline.

Pick: Kings (-125 at ESPN BET) | Play down to -135