Analytics: Any Hope For Washington's Season?

Numbers don't lie, but sometimes projections do.

Those of us who envisioned the Washington Football Team as a contender in the NFC East are feeling pretty well deceived right about now.

Technically, the team isn't out of the playoff race and the fact that the 4-4 Atlanta Falcons hold a spot in the postseason is cause for that glimmer of hope. NFL Network's resident analytics expert, Cynthia Frelund, took to her predictive model recently to see how many games each team would win in 2021. 

If you're looking to keep that small slice of hope a little longer, you may not want to read further. For you, we have a nice selection of underdog reading, right here. 

According to Frelund's latest projections, WFT fans have just three more wins to look forward to witnessing, as she has the win total for the team at 5.2. 

"The biggest miss I made with my preseason model was with Washington," wrote Frelund. "Which I had slated to win the NFC East based on its defense -which now ranks outside the top 20 in pressure rate, speed to pressure, yards allowed when pressuring and first downs and touchdowns allowed, as measured by computer vision."

In her preseason predictions, Frelund had Washington with nine wins (9.2) at a ceiling of 12 and a floor at 7.4.

Appears now, the team has gone below the floor, into the pits of NFL despair. 

While her preseason analysis honed in on Terry McLaurin's offensive output potential, the midseason recalculation emphasizes the lack of defensive performance in 2021. 

If Frelund's projections ring true at the end of the season, then Washington will hold the fifth overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft.

Only the Detroit Lions figure to have fewer wins in the NFC, while the Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, and New York Jets are projected to have fewer than five wins at the end of the 2021 NFL Season. 

Something which won't surprise many, is the Dallas Cowboys having the highest win total in Frelund's model, coming in with 11.5 and the NFC East title for the first time since 2018.